The Best Seasonal Period In The Stock Market

Some weeks ago I published an article looking at the worst month in the stock market: September.

Today, 29th of September, as September is coming to an end, and we’re about to enter the best season being invested in stocks: October to the end of April.

Let’s look at two portfolios: One invested from the close of September to the close of April (next year), and one invested from the close of April to the close of September.

The compounded profits from being invested from October to April from 1970 until today look like this:

October to April is the best season being invested in stocks.

100 000 is worth 3 million after 50 years being invested in the best period (not including dividends, so this number is grossly underestimated).

Being invested from the close of April until the close of September yields practically no return during 50 years:

Being invested in stocks from April until October yields very poor returns.

The difference in performance is pretty spectacular:

Good Bad
period period
Avg. Gain 7.87% 0.82%
Win-ratio 74 66.6
Avg. Win 13.62% 5.99%
Avg. Loss -8.49% -9.53%
Profit factor 4.02 1.09

 

Disclosure: I am not a financial advisor. Please do your own due diligence and investment research or consult a financial professional. All articles are my opinion – they are not suggestions to buy or sell any securities.

 

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