Why The Nordic Stock Markets Have Outperformed The Global Markets

The Nordic/Scandinavian region gets lots of coverage for their welfare models and statistical happiness, but perhaps lesser known is that its stock markets have performed really well over the last 50 years. I define the Nordics as Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland (Scandinavia is Norway, Sweden and Denmark). The languages are related and easy to understand between each other,

Continue reading

Svenska Handelsbanken Analysis- The Best Nordic Bank – Has The Best Moat There Is: Culture

Svenska Handelsbanken (called Handelsbanken in the rest of the article ) was founded in 1871 and is the oldest listed company on Stockholm Stock Exchange. The Bank has a nationwide branch network in Sweden, the UK, Norway, Denmark, Finland and the Netherlands. I have been long this stock for some years, and I believe this is the best managed bank

Continue reading

Some Thoughts On Markel (The “Mini/Baby” – Berkshire) And Its 2019 Shareholder Letter

Berkshire Hathaway needs no introduction, but what many investors might not know is the existence of several “Mini-Berkshires” or “Baby-Berkshires”, companies that are much smaller but in many ways similar both in business model and mindset of the management. One of these companies is Markel Corporation which is traded on the NYSE and has the tickercode “MKL”. Previously I have

Continue reading

Alleghany Corporation: A Boring, But Compounding, “Mini/Baby-Berkshire”

Berkshire Hathaway needs no introduction, but what many investors might not know is the existence of several “Mini-Berkshires” or “Baby-Berkshires”, companies that are much smaller but in many ways similar both in business model and mindset of the management. One of these companies is Alleghany Corporation which is traded on the NYSE and has the single tickercode “Y”. In this

Continue reading

Sin Stocks And Performance

A certain group of stocks have outperformed the rest of the stock market by a wide margin: Sin stocks. Tobacco, alcohol, arms producers, the gambling industry, the cannabis industry and sex-industry can safely be labelled as sin stocks. In the US, tobacco stocks have been the best performers over the last century, while alcohol stocks have been the best performer

Continue reading

Diageo: A Premium Sin-Stock

Diageo is a sin stock and those stocks have performed the best over the last century. This analysis argues for why this is likely to continue. Background and summary: Diageo produces alcohol – lots of it – hence a “sin-stock”. Tobacco and alcohol stocks have produced spectacular gains over the last century, and Diageo is not different: 12% CAGR since

Continue reading

Estimated Future Returns

As of writing most stock market around the globe are down around 30%. That is a big decline, especially considering it happened in just three weeks. However, unless you are about to sell assets today or in the very near future, for whatever reasons, you should consider the drop as an opportunity to add to your holdings. No doubt the

Continue reading

Why It Makes More Sense For Exxon To Buy Back Shares Instead Of Paying A Dividend

Last week I wrote an article about how you can create your own “dividend” by selling shares. Many investors have an irrational dividend bias: Benjamin Graham wrote in the Intelligent Investor that a rising dividend has the potential of attracting “ignorant coupon clippers” – not business owners. I believe too many shareholders in ExxonMobil (XOM) are in the “coupon clipper”

Continue reading

A Leveraged, Capital Intensive, Competitive and Cyclical Business Is Fragile (Some Thoughts On Fragility Vs. Antifragility)

Fragile – handle with care: Fragile is defined as an object easily broken or damaged. When you order something online that is fragile it most likely is labelled as “handle with care”. The reason is pretty obvious: it can’t sustain shocks, knocks, beating or being dropped to the ground.  It easily breaks apart. The opposite is antifragile: Antifragile – do

Continue reading

Chr. Hansen Holding AS: Wide Moat, But Management Has No Skin In The Game

This article contains some brief notes on Chr. Hansen Holding AS, the famous Danish enzymes, food/nutrition and natural colors company. The article is just a short presentation of the company and writing is kept to a minimum and mostly in the forms of bullet points. The business and some history: Chr. Hansen is a Danish company that supposedly touches about

Continue reading

Don’t Be Fooled By Your Dividend Bias – Sell Shares To Get “Income”

Introduction and summary: My idea with this article is to show that dividends are simply return of shareholders’ capital (a partial liquidation), exactly the same as selling the equivalent number of shares to create “income”. Admittedly, selling shares to support consumption feels a little like sawing off the branch I’m sitting on. Strangely enough, why doesn’t it feel the same about a

Continue reading

Credit Acceptance Corp: Excellent Operators And Allocators – Great Compounder

Credit Acceptance Corp has proven to be disciplined loan underwriters, a prerequisite for good long-term performance. Has a clear and rational strategy for allocating capital. Owner-operated, meaning management has the same skin in the game as outside shareholders. Their business model sets them apart, and might turn out to be countercyclical in a recession. However, the industry is competitive and

Continue reading

Comcast: A Recession “Proof” Compounder

Introduction and summary: Comcast (tickercode: CMCSA) is the world’s second biggest telecom company and headquartered in Philadelphia, USA. The company was founded by Ralph Roberts in 1963 and has largely grown via M&A. I’m long Comcast since late summer 2018 and consider this a long-term holding that will compound for years to come. My main reason for buying was twofold:

Continue reading

Constellation Software – Takeaways From Mark Leonard’s Shareholder Letters

This article contains a brief description of Constellation Software, some thoughts on its competitive advantages and excerpts from Mark Leonard’s excellent shareholder letters. The excerpts are quite long, about 5 000 words, and I recommend going to the source to read all letters. This article has only small samples of Leonard’s wisdom. Mark Leonard: Mark Leonard, an Englishman and former

Continue reading

The Perils of Selling Short

I signed my first client and proceeded to short my first stock. It almost proved to be my last. Over the next few weeks, I watched the stock trade up to 20, then 30, then 40, finally breaking through 50…..But when the stock climbed past 50, I started to cover, unable to stand the pain. It was too late, however,

Continue reading