Month: August 2020

How To Best Hedge Against Tail-Risk

Tail risk is a form of portfolio risk that arises when the possibility that an investment will move more than three standard deviations from the mean is greater than what is shown by a normal distribution. Tail risks include events that have a small probability of occurring, and occur at both ends of a normal distribution curve. –Investopedia Tail-risk, the

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Kone – Profit From Urbanization And The Oligopoly Market

Introduction and summary: This is what makes Kone, a Finnish elevator company,  a potentially good investment: The industry is close to an oligopoly – just four major global players: Otis, Schindler, Kone and ThyssenKrupp (in this rank based on sales). (About 15 years ago all companies were fined for price cooperation.) I believe the four players are unlikely to underbid

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Why Tobacco Companies Have Been A Good Investment

Some months ago I wrote an article about the historical performance of so-called “sin-stocks”. Tobacco companies have performed the best in the US, and alcohol stocks in the UK. In this article I briefly argue for the reasons why and why they most likely continue to outperform. High margins and cashflows: Margins are very high. For example, 27% of the

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Why I’m Long Gjensidige – The Norwegian Insurer

Gjensidige, for non-native speakers an unpronounceable name, is a quality Norwegian insurer. I’ve been long since the IPO in 2010, and below I briefly bring forward some arguments why I still own the stock (and why intend keeping it). Historical performance – boring  is good: Gjensidige has delivered significant alpha since the IPO in late 2010: CAGR of 18%. What

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