Category: Investing

Future Expected Returns In A Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) Environment

The last decade has produced fantastic returns in most global asset classes (commodities excluded), helped by enormous interventions by central banks. Can we expect similar high returns in the coming decade? The “new normal” (?): The “new normal” seems to be a low interest policy for the foreseeable future. How do we adapt as investors? Japanese investors have battled with

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The Importance Of Diversification

Harry Markowitz won the Nobel Prize in 1990 for his work in showing mathematically how you can both reduce risk and create better returns by diversifying across regions and assets. Risk is of course measured in volatility, ie. how your assets fluctuate in price. Such a theory was new when it was first released in the 1950s, and Markowitz said

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Dollar Cost Averaging: A Simple And Easy Way To Beat The “Experts” And Build Wealth Over Time

Summary and introduction: Research shows that the majority of investors underperform the broad market indices. The most likely reason is due to frequent buying/selling and behavioral mistakes. When you are trying to “outsmart” the markets, you most likely end up losing to the market. To successfully invest you actually need to do as little as possible. What is required of

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Compounding – The Magic Of A Long-Term Mindset And Delayed Gratification

“Compound interest is the eight wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it….he who doesn’t, pays it” -Albert Einstein Presumably Albert Einstein said the words above, and likewise Benjamin Franklin said that time is money. Unfortunately, we seem to forget these very simple principles when it comes to most decision making – be it learning, investing or in

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Don’t Be Fooled By Your Dividend Bias: DRIP Is Inferior To Internal Compounding

Introduction and summary: Many investors have a strong focus on dividends, so much that I would like to call it an irrational dividend bias. Dividend investors focus only on dividend stocks, and for the most part ignore those stocks which don’t pay a dividend. Thus, they leave out a huge segment of the market that has the potential of compounding

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Does Valuation Matter? Less Than You Think If You Buy Quality Stocks

Summary: S&P has an estimated P/E of 23 for 2020. Rich valuations sometimes make the best companies’ share price languish. Low interest rates justifies high valuations. Indexers might suffer more from high valuations than active investors. How important are growth and valuations? I look at theoretical returns under different valuations and growth. It turns out Warren Buffett is right: It’s

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Interview: Short-Term Trading Is A Zero-Sum Game, Investing Is Not

This week I was interviewed about my trading philosophy. In the interview I mentioned how difficult it is to make money daytrading or swingtrading for short-term profits. This is mainly a zero-sum game, I will even say it has negative expectancy due to commissions and slippage. Opposite, long-term investing has a positive expected return, given a diversified portfolio, as long

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Dividend Investing: Don’t Be Fooled By Your Dividend Bias – Marginal Rate Of Return/Incremental Return

This article covers these topics: Why dividend investing is not necessarily the most efficient way to compound capital. Dividends are paid out of book value, but usually reinvested above book value. Why accept to receive a dividend at book value when you can for example sell shares at two times book value? Where is the best place for your capital?

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The Foolishness Of Dividend Investing

This is a very short article based on two much longer articles: Don’t be fooled by your dividend bias – sell shares to create “income” Dividend investing: Don’t be fooled by your dividend bias – marginal rate of return/incremental return Don’t be fooled by your dividend bias: DRIP is inferior to internal compounding On the 30th of April 2020 Royal

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Why The Nordic Stock Markets Have Outperformed The Global Markets

The Nordic/Scandinavian region gets lots of coverage for their welfare models and statistical happiness, but perhaps lesser known is that its stock markets have performed really well over the last 50 years. I define the Nordics as Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland (Scandinavia is Norway, Sweden and Denmark – due to its similar language, Finland’s is not related). The

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Sin Stocks And Performance

A certain group of stocks have outperformed the rest of the stock market by a wide margin: Sin stocks. Tobacco, alcohol, arms producers, the gambling industry, the cannabis industry and sex-industry can safely be labelled as sin stocks. In the US, tobacco stocks have been the best performers over the last century, while alcohol stocks have been the best performer

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Estimated Future Returns

As of writing most stock market around the globe are down around 30%. That is a big decline, especially considering it happened in just three weeks. However, unless you are about to sell assets today or in the very near future, for whatever reasons, you should consider the drop as an opportunity to add to your holdings. No doubt the

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A Leveraged, Capital Intensive, Competitive and Cyclical Business Is Fragile (Some Thoughts On Fragility Vs. Antifragility)

Fragile – handle with care: Fragile is defined as an object easily broken or damaged. When you order something online that is fragile it most likely is labelled as “handle with care”. The reason is pretty obvious: it can’t sustain shocks, knocks, beating or being dropped to the ground.  It easily breaks apart. The opposite is antifragile: Antifragile – do

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Don’t Be Fooled By Your Dividend Bias – Sell Shares To Get “Income”

Introduction and summary: My idea with this article is to show that dividends are simply return of shareholders’ capital (a partial liquidation), exactly the same as selling the equivalent number of shares to create “income”. Admittedly, selling shares to support consumption feels a little like sawing off the branch I’m sitting on. Strangely enough, why doesn’t it feel the same about a

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The Perils of Selling Short

I signed my first client and proceeded to short my first stock. It almost proved to be my last. Over the next few weeks, I watched the stock trade up to 20, then 30, then 40, finally breaking through 50…..But when the stock climbed past 50, I started to cover, unable to stand the pain. It was too late, however,

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